The markets are looking ahead to a solution to the Greek mess next week. Last news this week was for a resolution "anytime". It remains to be seen what that resolution will be or what the response to the markets will be. A selloff/pullback would not be surprising. When the future becomes the present the market must then decide what to focus on next in the future. Good job numbers on Friday propelled the indexes higher. Looking inside the indexes, particularly at the things that I watch: ie, metals prices, grains, meats, interest rates and select stocks, things look optimistic.
Of note is LVS. Las Vegas Sands. This stock has stayed consistently higher in a longer term perspective over the last year, trading in a range. It has now moved above recent highs and looks to breakout of the range on the weekly chart. Of all the types of business that would portend a recovery in the broader market I would have to consider a casino stock near the top of the list. The do a lot of business in asia so it is more of an indicator of a global recovery. In my long term investing I am long the world. (EEM)
US Steel finally broke to the upside on good volume this last week. (X)
Steel Dynamics has continued higher. I picked this one last November or so....
AK Steel is looking weak however. The reason will become apparent some day.
The banks have been doing good. Citi looks to have broken out to the upside. The regionals have been strong for some time. As I've pointed out before. UMPQ etc....
Interest rates may move higher. TBT keeps costing me money because I keep getting in early..... I must be careful or I'll sour myself on this fund and miss the move when it happens. BUY NEW HIGHS!
The most probable outcome of bottom picking is smelly fingers!
Here are the charts.
In chart reading it is not unusual to see a price break a trendline and then come back to touch that trendline. You can see this in the TBT chart above.
If you are waiting for a pullback to get into the stock market you missed one the week before last. I was talking to someone a couple weeks ago who told me he was waiting for a pullback before he gets in. My response was, "if something is going up, buy it. If it goes down, sell it!". It really is that simple. Unless your EGO gets involved. Trying to pick a bottom of a move is just done for bragging rights because it is unproductive from a making money standpoint. It is hard to buy something that is going up because you can see that you have not bought at the lowest prices, but the fact is I prefer to buy things that are going up than things that are going down because I see my profit almost immediately and there is a lot less anguish waiting for the trend to change. If you keep the trend as your friend you will live happier and wealthier......
One note. Sometimes when the laggards start to get caught up it is a sign of a top in the markets as the public likes to buy the cheap things.. but a big trend change usually gives fair warning.
Control risk...gh
