gh
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Sunday, March 3, 2013
Dry Bulk bottom?
Quite often a chart just looks good when I glance at it. The chart of EGLE has that look. Granted it could go up OR down.
So a little research on the dry bulk market that has been in a serious funk since 2008.
There are lots of reasons for this market to continue it's sideways journey or to decline, but a few things caught my eye.
One was the recent losses posted by Vale and one of the reasons was the high shipping costs for iron ore. ?? Really?
A look at some charts....
Sorry about that. Now you know what the wallpaper on my second screen looks like!
And the article from Bloomberg Businessweek on VALE that mentions the high costs of dry shipping..
They ARE building more ships.... Their high cost was due to using the larger carriers.
It used to be the Greeks that were good at building ships when prices were down.
And some EGLE charts...
This stock may get exciting IF it starts to go up. The whole dry bulk may get going sometime...
WHEN is the big question.
gh
So a little research on the dry bulk market that has been in a serious funk since 2008.
There are lots of reasons for this market to continue it's sideways journey or to decline, but a few things caught my eye.
One was the recent losses posted by Vale and one of the reasons was the high shipping costs for iron ore. ?? Really?
A look at some charts....
And the article from Bloomberg Businessweek on VALE that mentions the high costs of dry shipping..
They ARE building more ships.... Their high cost was due to using the larger carriers.
It used to be the Greeks that were good at building ships when prices were down.
And some EGLE charts...
WHEN is the big question.
gh
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
It is true....
Buying at new highs in stocks and other securities has always been the right play. Everybody is a winner in those situation. The skeptics are short and need to cover. Again and again...
Here is this from somebody.
It is counterintuitive and tough to do, but it is a great strategy, provided the consolidation near the top has been long.
Have the stock markets been in a "consolidation" since 2000?
Maybe. Maybe we just needed to consolidate the gains that happened before that. Or it is just inflation of assets.
Same thing. Gotta keep up with inflation.
gh
Here is this from somebody.
It is counterintuitive and tough to do, but it is a great strategy, provided the consolidation near the top has been long.
Have the stock markets been in a "consolidation" since 2000?
Maybe. Maybe we just needed to consolidate the gains that happened before that. Or it is just inflation of assets.
Same thing. Gotta keep up with inflation.
gh
Oil is an outdated indicator
This is the difference between 2007 and now. Low energy prices. Relative to other costs
Oil prices were weak in the 1990's. We considered that a good thing. And what happened. Debt creation soared on the back of low energy and low interest rates as the economy roared.
Now we have a huge supply of Nat gas coming in to the economy. So far for electricity and home heating. Soon for transportation.
Don't look to the price of oil to be an accurate indicator of the strength of the economy. It is being replaced by NG, which is plentiful....
Oil prices were weak in the 1990's. We considered that a good thing. And what happened. Debt creation soared on the back of low energy and low interest rates as the economy roared.
Now we have a huge supply of Nat gas coming in to the economy. So far for electricity and home heating. Soon for transportation.
Don't look to the price of oil to be an accurate indicator of the strength of the economy. It is being replaced by NG, which is plentiful....
And that's the truth.
First Solar reload??
First Solar down to where it broke out some time ago....
I will be interesting to see if the old resistance can become new support.
I will be interesting to see if the old resistance can become new support.
Just watchin'
gh
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
A new world every day....
I trade, therefore I am...
When a trade is setting up I just feel it in my bones. It tends to affect my long term outlook as I search for the reasons for the action of the markets....
The last few days saw a set up for a market decline that was easy to see. I put on some short positions as the decline proved itself by weakness in the tape. But I trade. Particularly when short selling. It has been very difficult to make any money on the short side for me. And even when I'm long and start telling myself that "this trade will be for the long term" I take it as a warning to myself to WATCH OUT! About the time I start thinking long term seems to be the end of the move...
So, although at the end of yesterday I felt that my shorts were just the start of something big, and I posted a picture of a bear "sitting tight", I did no such thing. I cashed out my easy money today. And later in the day did some bottom picking as the tape seemed to be saying that the selling had ended as fast as it had started. At least for now.....
The VXX trade is featured....
And I really can't stay bearish when silver acts strong.
And there is still that WLT ceiling to take another shot at....
When a trade is setting up I just feel it in my bones. It tends to affect my long term outlook as I search for the reasons for the action of the markets....
The last few days saw a set up for a market decline that was easy to see. I put on some short positions as the decline proved itself by weakness in the tape. But I trade. Particularly when short selling. It has been very difficult to make any money on the short side for me. And even when I'm long and start telling myself that "this trade will be for the long term" I take it as a warning to myself to WATCH OUT! About the time I start thinking long term seems to be the end of the move...
So, although at the end of yesterday I felt that my shorts were just the start of something big, and I posted a picture of a bear "sitting tight", I did no such thing. I cashed out my easy money today. And later in the day did some bottom picking as the tape seemed to be saying that the selling had ended as fast as it had started. At least for now.....
The VXX trade is featured....
Small positions and lots of cash.....
gh
Next?
Short squeeze
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Short squeeze is a rapid increase in the price of a stock that occurs when there is a lack of supply and an excess of demand for the stock.[1]
Short squeezes result when short sellers cover their positions on a stock. This can occur if the price has risen to a point where short sellers must make margin calls, or more loosely if short sellers simply decide to cut their losses and get out. This may happen in an automated manner for example if the short sellers had previously placed stop-loss orders with their brokers to prepare for this possibility. Since covering their positions involves buying shares, the short squeeze causes an ever further rise in the stock's price, which in turn may trigger additional margin calls and short covering.
Short squeezes are more likely to occur in stocks with small market capitalization and small floats, although can involve large stocks and billions of dollars, as happened in October 2008 when a short squeeze temporarily drove the shares of Volkswagen on the Xetra DAX from €210.85 to over €1000 in less than two days, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world.[2][3]
The opposite of a short squeeze is the less common long squeeze.
This can also apply to futures contracts.[4]
gh
Short squeezes result when short sellers cover their positions on a stock. This can occur if the price has risen to a point where short sellers must make margin calls, or more loosely if short sellers simply decide to cut their losses and get out. This may happen in an automated manner for example if the short sellers had previously placed stop-loss orders with their brokers to prepare for this possibility. Since covering their positions involves buying shares, the short squeeze causes an ever further rise in the stock's price, which in turn may trigger additional margin calls and short covering.
Short squeezes are more likely to occur in stocks with small market capitalization and small floats, although can involve large stocks and billions of dollars, as happened in October 2008 when a short squeeze temporarily drove the shares of Volkswagen on the Xetra DAX from €210.85 to over €1000 in less than two days, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world.[2][3]
The opposite of a short squeeze is the less common long squeeze.
This can also apply to futures contracts.[4]
Monday, February 25, 2013
Friday, February 22, 2013
Occupy Wall Street
The sentiment that led to OWS and to the Tea Party is not gone.
Recent developments in Italy show a populist politician surging in the polls and drawing huge crowds.
“The pro-euro parties are losing ground in favor of populist forces,” Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at Mizuho International Plc in London, said today in a research report. “But, much like in the Greek case, there are no viable alternatives to austerity and structural reforms.”
Grillo in Italy
And the recent new of an American CEO taunting the French union workers. Calling them lazy, etc.....
Here
I am reminded of Ms. Antionettes comments regarding cake.....
It ain't over till it's over.....
gh
Recent developments in Italy show a populist politician surging in the polls and drawing huge crowds.
“The pro-euro parties are losing ground in favor of populist forces,” Riccardo Barbieri, chief European economist at Mizuho International Plc in London, said today in a research report. “But, much like in the Greek case, there are no viable alternatives to austerity and structural reforms.”
Grillo in Italy
And the recent new of an American CEO taunting the French union workers. Calling them lazy, etc.....
Here
I am reminded of Ms. Antionettes comments regarding cake.....
It ain't over till it's over.....
gh
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