Gold and the Yen

For some time I have noticed what appears to be a correlation in the way gold trades and the Japanese Yen trades intraday. As well as a looser correlation with the daily prices of the two.
In the charts below I illustrate a recent example of the intraday similarity in the price movements and then a longer term Yen chart.

The long term Yen has the look of  bottom being formed and with a move coming soon. A move up in the yen should push the USD down further and faster. Maybe.
At any rate, if the Yen goes up I expect Gold to do the same.
The charts:

 gh

my car loan

My old vehicle

 

So I bought a vehicle from a Lithia auto dealer the other day. The saleswoman mentioned the skyrocketing prices of her LAD shares that she held through the lows of '09. That stock has gone from $1 to $75 over 4 years. Not bad.

And then I got to thinking why the stock has done so well. The company is making money off of schmucks like me. I don't like buying cars and this experience was no exception. It took extraordinary measures to get them to budge on the price. And after the fact I found out that I paid too much for the vehicle. Of course. I always do.....they are the pros. (Pun INTENDED!)

But the reason for this post is the interest rate I obtained with financing. (yes, financing)

1.62% for 5 years from Wells Fargo. I don't know how they can make any money at that rate.

Borrow the money on the short end and lend it longer I suppose. What happens when interest rates on the short end rise?

And even thoough I have good credit I dread to see what happens to the car industry if and when interest rates go up.

the maid and the new car;)

Just thinkin'

again

gh

　

The Best Gold Stock?

A few days ago I was looking through my list of gold company stocks. One that jumped out at me was the chart of AngloGold/Ashanti (AU).

It has the look of a stock that is trying to go up. There is that triple top that I look for and a rounded bottom. As I have said before I prefer rounded bottoms....;)

Wait and see.....

Just looking at this chart I would set a price target of about $18.

don't get greedy....
Control risk always.
gh

To the Sun, Edith

In the interest of bragging I mention that FSLR is going up, and fast. I had recommended it a few post back due to the strength I was seeing in the intraday trading. Chart below.

GOL is starting another move today. Time will tell.

control risk, the price will tell you when you are wrong......

gh

DHT Holdings

I ran across this chart awhile ago. It is of DHT Holdings company, which is an operator of crude oil tanker ships. They are losing money. The chart looks about the same as GNK did 2-3 months ago.
Intraday the volume is on the buy side. Not much volume. Yet. But the volume will come later if the stock gets underway to the upside.

I was intrigued by this link in which the author points out that if the company were liquidated the stock holders would see a gain of about $2/share. In other words the physical holdings of the company are worth more than the stock. If I remember right that is the kind of thing that Benjamin Graham liked.

control your risk,
gh

CU later

Copper prices look set to initiate an upward trend. Time will tell of course.

The stock indexes feel strong. There may be some "trading" around a debt limit decision today if one actually comes to fruition, but the action of the markets in the face of a potential default tells me that the economy is picking up and the markets want to be there when it does.

Industrial metals stocks have been on a tear.

And emerging markets may resume their march to the future. The world is full of people who want some of the good life. The last few years of financial difficulties has not stopped the will of common people in the poorer areas of the world to keep working to improve their lot. And many of those countries have governments that will constructively work for the benefit of their people. This growth will be positive for basic materials around the globe. And the energy situation will allow it to happen as debts will become easier to repay by the flexibility of business to expand made possible by affordable energy sources. The push to "green" will continue with the increased affordability of solar and wind, and natural gas will be a tremendous boon.

We may be at the start of another commodities boom. Time will tell.

Trade with the trend.
Cut your losers.
Let your winners run.
and you will have controlled your risk!

gh

Don't argue with the tape

The stock indexes, in particular the small cap stocks look good. This market can't wait to get this debt ceiling nonsense behind it.

This chart says a lot about the future of this country. I am not sure if it is prosperity or inflation. But things are looking up.

 

Act accordingly.

 

gh

Gold hammered??

The reports from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) this morning of are one large sell order that caused a large drop in gold price such that the electronic trading was halted for several seconds.

Some of the gold bugs have been alleging manipulation of the gold price for some time and I take those accusations with a grain of salt. However, from a trading perspective it is suspicious that anyone, particularly a large concern with a large amount of gold to sell would just place an order so large that it moved the price $25. It makes no sense. A large holder expects to unwind a long position of weeks or months. And an order so large as to move the market is counterproductive to an orderly unwind.

This happens at a time when the US Dollar is WEAK. And by weak I mean nearing  lows. This should be a cause for gold to rise in price.

Is the price of gold being manipulated to mask the decline in the dollar? That is the question I ask myself this morning.

The article is here:
http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-halted-on-cme-for-stop-logic-event-2013-10
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After I posted this above I got to thinking. Not something that I do often enough it seems.

I found a chart of long term US Dollar index. It looks significantly different from the charts that I usually use of UUP, the dollar bull ETF.
On the actual DXY chart the USD is in the middle of a historical range and can go either way from here. Although it looks set to go down to me.
But not the calamity I had been expecting.

This event, my lack of accurate information, speaks volumes to the importance of money management. Money management is the key to making money in the markets.

Meaning: Add to your winners. Cut your losers. Never average down.
That way even an idiot like me can make money.

gh

Belly Up, Mr. Boehner

Pressure cooker

The averages are down. But the intraday action says that this market wants to go UP!

Particularly the materials. X.... 

FSLR....

GOL....  So. American Airline....

Things are looking up.  Unless the lunatics persist in destabilizing the world economy.

Santelli, can you think of another cause? This one must be costing you money.

right now I'm eating biscuits with my next door neighbors bee's honey on them... Yum!

gh