Sunday, October 30, 2011

One of my fav trading patterns....

On of my favorite chart patterns to trade is a triple top. I don't mean a triple top near all time highs, although that works too. But any time I see the price bump against a ceiling three times I get set for a breakout through those recent highs.
I have been seeing a lot of trades lately. What a difference a moveup in the averages makes. That is another valuable trading rule: Don't buy when the averages are in a downtrend!
Anyway, here is a chart of Knightsbridge tankers. I suppose the price of crude going up means their business might pick up as well...
Know when you will get out. Look at a chart and ask yourself: If I trade using charts, and if a breakout through this triple top means the price is going up, where will the price be when I am wrong. The classic answer is "somewhere in the middle of the present consolidation".....Please note that this is only good for a short term trade. Usually a day or two. We are bottom picking here if we trade for the longer term. I find it hard to hold on to these for the long haul. If I were that type of long term investor I would perhaps put on a big trade position, and then sell most of it and hold the rest for the long haul....Or add more later as the trend proved itself.
It is a gutcheck when you sell the trade and the stock just keeps going up! I remember buying Oregon Steel at $14, making a quick buck, and it didn't stop until $60....aaarrrghh!

alway limit your risk....gh
Limit your risk.

Defense?

I keep my stocks in lists. One of those lists is "Defense Stocks". This is the best looking chart of the bunch. A break above resistance at $58 may be the start of another leg up......
Always limit your risk......gh

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Friday, October 28, 2011

Zerohedge locked me out.

I find that my I can't log in to Zerohedge. I must believe that I was locked out by the management. I have lately had some disagreements with the general tone of the discussions on ZH. I have felt that the stock market and the economy in general may not be as bad as is portrayed on ZH. I went so far as to state that "Zerohedge is a one trick pony". OMG!! Did I really say that??
All of my comments have been polite and logical. And I have been right lately. I think that may be the problem. The economy may be poised to turn around, the problems in the middle east may be on the mend, Obama may be the next president, and low interest rates may finally pull the economy out of its slump. And that means Zerohedge is out of a job.
But, I can't log in..... I can't believe they could do this. I thought they welcomed debate. Maybe I will be proven wrong.
If you have access to Tyler ask him what is up!!
gh

Grains?

Here is a interesting pattern. I would look to buy some grain if the price breaks out to the upside from here. I also would consider the price of grains an indicator of inflation. Inflation is a sign of increased economic activity.

gh

Buy the strongest...

One thing I have noticed over the course of the last couple decades is that when a downturn in the general market is coming to a close the best bets are those stocks that have held up the best during the downturn. On a long term time horizon, here is one that has held up well...... Buying new highs in these situations often turns out to be a good bet. Counterintuitively.

Las Vegas Sands.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

The late dollar rally...

Here is the bigger picture of that dollar rally that happened over the last couple months as the stock and commodities markets were under pressure.

There is no uptrend here:
gh

tbt

This is where you buy some more TBT. Don't get greedy. Just a second third.

Control your risk.....gh

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

How about this!

There is a lot of doom and gloom out there and has been for a long time now. It seems sometimes that everybody has lost hope of a rebound in the housing market. I often see charts of financial activity that the presenter shows as an example of the markets getting ready to repeat past history. Here is a chart put out by the folks at Case-Schiller. The crayon marks are mine.
gh

ditto

"Surprises" happen along the line of least resistance.....

gh