Oh, well

What can I say. My timing is and has been terrrible lately.. Last week I felt the stirrings of a bear market so that is what I indicated. I won't dismiss those intuitions yet.

small short position. Holding.....

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Duck and Cover.

The bear has escaped. Take refuge. Quickly......

And this....

http://michael-hudson.com/2012/07/the-weaponization-of-economic-theory/

Obama is a tightwad

Have you heard of Forbes magazine? The conservative Forbes magazine. Perhaps Steven Forbes, the conservative who ran for president of the United States a few years back. You know, the same S. Forbes who bores you to tears whenever you hear him talk for more than a few seconds. He is one of those who is always preaching small government......

Here is an article from Forbes. The magazine.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/24/who-is-the-smallest-government-spender-since-eisenhower-would-you-believe-its-barack-obama/

Round and round she goes....

There is an old friend, who I haven't seen recently. Of all the things I remember about this old friend is that he would often say "round and round she goes". A reference to the never ending change in the world and the similarity of current events to events past.  This poem by Yeats reminds me of the constant change and how things remain the same. And of the eternal spring of optimism that is the human predisposition. When we are not anticipating armageddon.

     THE SECOND COMING
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.
 
    Surely some revelation is at hand;
    Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
    The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
    When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
    Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
    A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
    A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
    Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
    Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
 
    The darkness drops again but now I know
    That twenty centuries of stony sleep
    Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
 
William Butler Yeats
 
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Which way GOLD

A chart of RandGold. If nothing else the ticker symbol is good for a few percentage points..

Increased volume on the sideways movement after a decline....

the chart:

Control risk,
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Friday the 13th, 7/12

Little rally in the stocks today. Volume light overall, but the buying volume much heavier than the selling volume. Stocks rallied strong in the first hour on news that JPMorgan didn't lose as much as some had feared in the trading debacle of late. So the market rallied on news that wasn't as bad as expected. Volume strong in the morning, a mid day sideways motion with very low volume. Tells me that there aren't so many waiting for ANY rally to sell into. A positive sign. Then a breakout to the upside at the start of the last hour, didn't go far, but when some volume selling came in it was met with volume buying. As if big buyers looking for volume to buy into..... either shorts covering(most likely) or ....
The move made the chart look good!

A thought occured to me. There has been a good little rally going on the the grains due to the drought in the midwest. I wonder if a food inflation could cause a general inflation in this day and time????
And along the same lines. What if global warming is really taking effect. The impact on global food production could be severe.... Another '70's commodities rally from another cause....??

Just thinking.
Some charts:

And I noticed this little chart of a gold company:

Usually a pattern like the weekly above breaks down in a big move. Sometimes up in a big move.
Gold has the same pattern. A move either way could be the start of something big.

Control risk.
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Spotting "investing" opportunities

Here is a chart showing something that I have noticed is often a sign of a long term bottom. Not always, of course, but often enough to get my attention. The trick is to be patient and get good position with a small to medium size position and wait for the break out.... Sometimes the wait is interminable though...

Don't be like this guy:

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a picture is worth a paragraph

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Crater lake. July 4th

Me and my better half took a drive up to Crater Lake yesterday, the 4th. Terrific day! The colors were unbelievable.  (I set  the date wrong on my camera)
Enjoy...

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