Deck Indicator Up

For some time I have noticed what appears to be a correlation between what the DIA does and DECK.
The Decker's Indicator is up today and may indicate the direction over the coming days.
Or not.....

Here it is:

control your risk,
gh

Interest rates to rise

As I am preparing this post Mr. Joe Terranova is recommending a buy on TBT, the short bond ETF.

I concur. A few posts back I picked a top in the long bond. The market backed and filled around that top and now is set to decline. The ISM numbers today show a pickup in the economy. Interest rates have only on way to go. UP.
The chart of TLT shows the magnitude of the treasury rally that had people wondering why. It amounts to a 50% retracement of the previous move down. Typical of short covering.

The recent action in gold says the same thing.

BUY TBT for a long term play.

And keep an eye on volatility. The worries of the stock market may return regarding higher interest rates and the longevity of the ZERP ZIRP...... Zero Interest Rate Policy, not Zero Rate Policy!

 



 
 

Something odd

Usually as the stock indexes drift/melt up the Volatility Index declines. I watch and trade the VXX.
Today, in the middle of the day, during the slow part of the day I notice the VXX hitting the highs for the day. That strikes me as odd.
Perhaps it is just that the VXX is "oversold" and needs a small rally.
Or maybe it is the start of something.
I don't know.
But this is a good example of what tape reading is.
Imagine you are sitting on a street corner. You sit there day after day. You get to know the comings and goings of the usual passersby. So when some shady looking character shows up that you haven't seen before you perk up and become interested. And if you see another one show up and they get together, you think something is up. And you move your chair behind a tree.

Just sittin' and watchin'

And if there is a way to profit by your observations that is called speculating.
"Speculare" from the Latin for "to spy and observe"

gh

Time for a Bounce in Dry Bulk?

Keep an eye on the dry bulk shippers. It looks like something of a bottoming process going on. A lot of that has to do with a possible bottom in the Russell Small Caps. Diana Shipping (DSX) and Dryships (DRYS) with strong performances today.

Particularly in DRYS. An early dip below support on high volume and then a close near the top of the recent range. I look for a break out above in the coming days.
We'll see....

gh

Miners weak

A bearish chart pattern is forming in the gold miners index (GDX).

Conversely, for a long only account, there is a bullish pattern in the gold miner short fund (DUST).

I watch AU all the time. It had been the strongest of the miners, but has also recently gotten weak.
So, a rally in gold would be a surprise at this time.

I am still long TC on the chart signals.

Bought some DUST today.

As usual, I add as the price proves me right.
Never add to losers, only winners.
That way you control risk!
gh

Then and Now

THEN:

Permian

NOW:

THEN:
Expeditors

NOW:

Control your risk,
gh

Wanna See a Bull Market

Here is a chart of India small caps as represented by this small cap India fund.

SCIF

And what will Indians buy if history is any guide?

Silver. Contrary to this article.

India accounts for about 20 percent of world silver consumption, mainly for jewellery, but also for investment as an alternative asset.

Just thinking, again.....
gh

Do ya wanna pick a bottom?

Well, do ya? Punk!

I'm going to try picking at IRBT.

I promise I'll wash my hands afterwards.

Got a Yen For a Rally?

The Yen is forming a price pattern that portends a sharp rally.
I presume that would mean the USD will decline since they Yen is one of the major counterparts of the USD in the Dollar Index.

Will real assets rise? Dunno.
gh

UST Top

 

time will tell

gh