Friday, November 17, 2017

Silver to Shine

The U.S. Dollar is on a path to secular weakness.

It is showing in this chart of Silver Standard.

Friday, October 20, 2017

Real Estate/ Interest Rate Correlation

Just the charts.

Rising Wedge in U.S. Housing Prices?

The 'Rising Wedge' is fairly reliable technical analysis chart pattern, particularly when the price rises on ever lower volume.

Every month the U.S. housing numbers reflect rising prices with a lack of sellers. Inventories down.

Two questions.
Why no sellers?.......... Are the survivors of the last crash holding on. What do they do if prices start to fall?

How will higher interest rates affect the buyers? Wages continue under pressure in the U.S. Can new buyers afford higher interest payments or higher down payments?
Will a strong dollar temper foreign demand?
What do the bank balance sheets look like with respect to housing loans?

Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Steel Yourself!

Are we on the verge of yet another "supercycle"?

Trump is energetic about deficit spending and fiscal stimulus.

Look at some similarities in the long term chart of AK Steel.

The only real difference is the trend over the last few years....

But hope springs eternal!!


Thursday, October 12, 2017

Worldwide Recovery?

It seems every stock market in the world is rising to new highs on anticipation of economic growth.

Even the lowly Baltic Dry Index is recovering.
I don't see much movement in the shippers, though.

It does seem about time to this trader.....

Baltic Dry Index at Bloomberg

Dianna Shipping  DSX

Control risk.


Monday, August 28, 2017

Next Hyper-Inflation?

As global warming continues to create extreme weather events it may be the seed of the next worldwide hyper-inflation as countries spend to remediate the destructive events and as industry and food production is impacted and as economies are 'stimulated' to avoid debt defaults.


Thursday, August 17, 2017

Slouching Towards Armageddon

Are we having fun yet?

The President of the United States has fully convince a clear majority of the world that he is completely unfit for his job.

All that is left is for him to resign.

A Pence presidency will get the Republican agenda back on track quickly. I suspect the country is willing to leave this episode behind as soon as possible.

Do it, Mr. President. You are costing the country immensely.


Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Dollar Weakness Continues

US Dollar weakness continues. Gold and Silver start to heat up.

The  strongest of the lot shown here as holding trade.

President Trump is shaking the worlds confidence in the country and promising to cut taxes and spend on infrastructure.
Long yields persist in weakness.


Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Old Paradigm President

Presidente Trump states he thinks the U.S. Dollar is too strong and that he prefers interest rates to be low.
He also states that he hasn't decided whether or not to extend Janet Yellen's tenure.

Hint, hint....

I guess our fearless leader prefers the old paradigm.

I do too, actually. There is no other way for the world to escape the debts we are in.
I just hope we raise taxes on the rich when we start to inflate away our problems.

Just saying,


Saturday, April 8, 2017

Jobs Numbers

Jobs numbers came in for the month. 98K new, much less than expected, with previous months revised down.

Is this the start of a slowdown, or just an oddball number?
Some say the low number is because employers can't find workers, so don't hire.
If we assume this latter answer is true, what does it mean?

Demand is still high for products and services? Yes?

Wages will go up? Yes?

Interest rates must rise? Yes?

Corporate profits under pressure? Yes?

President Trump wants infrastructure spending and to build his wall. Labor needed.

What does a rise in interest rates do to the oil industry? Junk bonds?

And this at a time when U.S. corporations await a tax cut, which if enacted would increase U.S. govt debt.

All of these types of things take time to play out, but from a big picture perspective could be game changing.

And our Federal Reserve seems intent on raising rates to show that they can, but with a very cautious stance.

Europe recovering? Oil recovering? Emerging markets?

Time to tread water? No firm choice. Wall of worry. Or change from decades of disinflation?

How well do paradigms change?