Friday, September 19, 2014

BABA Top?

Alibaba set to open in minutes.

I see buying in the treasuries.

And the recent large moves in currencies must be dislocating some large players.

What does it mean? I don't know. We will find out later.

Sitting on cash,
gh

Added note:  Jack Ma, the CEO of Alibaba states he wants to be bigger than Walmart. And it seems he could be Walmart on steroids. If BABA goes from B2B to B2C, (consumer) it will have the effect of putting the cheap labor output of China and the world directly available to consumer. This is more deflationary export from them to US.
Cheap, yes. A job creator here. Not so much!
gh

Monday, September 8, 2014

Poor Markets For This Trader

It has been difficult for myself for some months to make a good trade.

My experience is that markets get hard to trade for quite some time before the averages change trend.

This seems like one of those times.

And lately, at near new highs the volume has picked up. The latest trend has been to a rally at the open, and then selling late in the day.

The volume has increased the last few days with no forward movement in the averages. After years of uptrend that spells distribution for me.

The charts.

Time will, of course, tell.

control risk,
gh

Friday, September 5, 2014

Big Bank Weakness

Earlier this year there was selling in the big banks that I watch. Namely Bank O' America and Shittygrope.

Here are the charts with notations of the technical nature of the weakness in these stocks.


There you have it.
FAZ

gh

A Game of Hot Potato?

The European Central Bank Chairman, Mario Draghi, announced yesterday a surprise rate cut for the Eurozone and the intent of the ECB to purchase asset backed securities much as the U.S. Fed has been doing for years now. This comes at a time when the Fed is expected to be winding down asset purchases (QE2) and to signal the intent to start thinking about raising short term interest rates.

The Euro down sharply yesterday to a multi-month low, along with the Yen. U.S. Dollar sharply higher. This should make our patriots happy.

The intent of an interest rate cut by the ECB is to export the inflation problem that they feel they have.
This is a continuation of the long running currency war that has been going on for the last decade or so, as country after country attempts to devalue the domestic currency in order to stimulate demand for exports and thus create domestic jobs.

Much as a game of "Hot Potato" as everyone attempts to pass the unpleasantness on to someone else.

The U.S. long bonds decline as interest rates rise slightly even as the stock indexes start to sell off.

Some,  David Tepper , think that this spells the end of the long US Treasury "bubble". Perhaps. But not tomorrow. But demand for a Eurobond will continue and the pressure will be on Germany to allow one to be created. And that is where the money will flow, should that happen.

Watch the money flows. 

And the enthusiasm for the US stocks seems to be weak at the moment.

The world would not have this problem if labor hadn't been so weak for so long. All of those trillions getting parked in government bonds by corporations would be in the saving accounts of private individuals and circulating in the economy. And thus the attempts to devalue would have worked long ago and we would be done with this nonsense, instead of trying to stimulate more debt creation on the backs of consumers, along with keeping the stock indexes artificially high because the voters are desperately depending on stocks as a store of "value" for retirement.  But who can stop playing the game? You first!

Control risk,
gh


Friday, August 29, 2014

Drums of War

PM Cameron on the telly a few minutes ago.
Britain is getting on the war wagon.

Here is a recent op-ed on the recent drumbeat, particularly on Faux news.

It is starting again.

Bought some gold today and SSRI yesterday.

Heavy on the PBT for a few days.

Oil is strong and UNG holding up well

A bull market takes awhile to turn. Putting money in stocks is an automatic thing for many. And that will take some time to change.
Long bonds are at lower yields than could reasonably be expected for the "strength" or coming strength in the world economy.

gh

Monday, August 25, 2014

Fedex Busy

This is not a recommendation for a stock. This post is an observation only.

I ordered a couple of big speakers for my yard a few days ago because I wanted some loud music out there. The speakers arrived today by FedEx. The FedEx van was a rental from Budget, with a FedEx magnetic strip on the door. I asked the driver why the rental. He replied that his usual truck was in the shop and he had this truck today. He went on to exclaim that he was glad he had this rental today because of all the bulky packages he had to deliver. The back of this panel truck was piled high with boxes as big as the speakers I had ordered. This is in a rural area, and the delivery area for this driver is this rural area. It is usually delivered in a van.

But someone, myself included, decided to buy some stuff in these dog days of summer.....

That FedEx driver was busy.

Just an observation on the state of this local depressed economy.

gh

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Time Out!

I'm making this too complicated. And it is costing me money.

I am sitting on the sidelines for awhile to watch.

We'll see how long this lasts.

gh

Friday, August 15, 2014

Poop Hitting Fan

The latest new from Ukraine is of part of a Russian military column being destroyed by Ukraine forces. There is talk of NATO involvement. Unknown what "involvement" means.

Stocks down sharply as WWIII gets under way......

Oh, that won't happen! 

Sure.....

WWIII here!

US Treasuries much stronger lately than any reasonable person could expect with the anticipation of an end to Fed purchases and a rate hike next year.
It hasn't mattered what stocks have done lately, treasuries go up.

This matters.

Control risk,
NOW,
gh

P.S., The talking voice on TV/CNBC says this is a "buying opportunity". Right, the S&P is down 5 points. I suppose he is buying. Finally.

gh

And I've given up on CRK and UNG. For now.

gh

Sunday, August 10, 2014

Comstock Resources and UNG

I started some trades in CRK and UNG last week on technical indications.

CRK seemed to be strong at last weeks level by the buying volume that came in. See Chart.
And a rounded bottom in UNG that I noticed a few days ago. Not a strong chart, but one that just struck me when I looked at the dailies a couple days ago. The best trades for me are often those that just jump out at me. I can't always rationalize the reasons.

But started a couple trades. I'll add to them if they seem to be turning into trends.....

Control your risk,
gh


Friday, August 8, 2014

My Yearly Horse Ride

O'kay. This is nothing to do with trading. The week before last I went with my wife on a yearly adventure on the Pacific Crest Trail. We ride out of a small horsecamp  at Windigo Pass in the headwaters of the North Umpqua drainage. Spent some long days in the saddle, and there was even a few minutes when I thought "this is fun".....

But the scenery is unbelievable.


Gotta do that again.


Still long silver and gold and that molycorp thing.

gh