Friday, October 30, 2015

Not As Weak as Expected

Just a note here.

Gold and Silver are not as weak as I expected over the last two days. Two days is a short time, I know, but GLD and SLV do not break with the sellstops like they usually do.

And UUP is weaker than I would expect. Seems more are selling the rally than expected.

A trading rule I have is that when something surprises me I wake up and pay attention.
The dog that didn't bark.....

Control risk,

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Break Time!

I sold the rest of my 'weak dollar' trades today. Started selling a few days ago. This trade saved the year.
The Federal Reserve changed their language in the statement released today and seemed to put themselves back on track for a rate hike sooner rather than later.

I will not attempt to predict whether gradual rate hikes will crash the "fragile" economy or not. What I do expect is for the speculative markets to begin anew to worry about interest rates rising, and more specifically, worry about the negative effects of a strong U.S. Dollar.

There is no hurry. And no shame in buying things back if wrong. Right now it seems to me that the probabilities are for a weakening of stocks and real asset derivatives.

We may revisit the junk debt and the emerging market worries. Even as China surprises?

Stay dry.


Thursday, October 15, 2015

Repos Rise!

OMG! WTF! Reposessions up 60%!

Or perhaps the banks are expediting the repos because they can take them back on the books and maybe they see a market for these homes. At long last....Z


The banks want these homes.



"To the Moon, Edith!"

"Oh, Archie....)

People are waking up to a weak USD.
Oil will come alive probably sooner than widely anticipated.

Control risk,

Tuesday, October 6, 2015


Silver stocks and the metal itself is on a tear, relatively speaking after years of decline. The miners are showing some life. Undoubtedly a lot of short covering going on, but that is the first step in a change in trend.
Dollar weakness will come to the forefront in coming months and years.

Control risk,