Monday, August 26, 2013

We may be near a pivot in the BDI

A longer term chart of the Baltic Dry Index shows the price of shipping near the top of a couple year range. A breakout to the upside with prices could signal the start of a large move. It would be explosive, in my humble opinion, for the price of the dry bulk shippers stocks. Time will tell.

Here are some links to the BDI. I hope they work.

BDI Chart

Dianna Shipping is trying to break out triple top.
Genco has taken off but is still low. IMHO
Eagle is showing continued strength.
And that daytraders fav DRYShips is alive again.

Control risk, average up.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Will DECK lead?

Sometime back I noticed a tendency for Deckers Outdoor (DECK) to lead the DOW in the intraday and sometimes a couple days ahead. I suppose that is to be expected when both are in an uptrend, etc...
Lately the stock averages are trying to sell off but the volume has been pathetic so it is hard to take any selling seriously. We are supposedly worried about the Fed tapering their purchases of US Treasuries. What Ever!

Lately DECK has been rallying toward a possible breakout to the upside from a long sideways trading range. It will be interesting to see if indeed DECK is leading the way for the broader averages. Or just co-incidence. I personally think things are stronger than the talking heads think and that the markets are poised to start another leg up.

the Fed releases some minutes of meeting later today so that may affect some decisions.

GOOD progress in the PM's over the last 2 weeks.

And have I mentioned the Baltic Dry index lately? Take a look here.

control risk

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Hard Hats Required

Don't get struck by the falling dollar!

And keep your eyes on the middle east. It is going to hell fast.

That may explain oil and energy strength and a coming lack of demand for petrodollars..


Tic Tic Tic............

Time is running out on the US Dollar as the worlds reserve currency.....

Data from the US Treasury today shows that large foreign holders of US Treasuries are selling.

Surprise!  NOT.

This is why the US Dollar will continue to weaken as interest rates continue to rise and inflation kicks in.

From Treasury

From Aug. 5th:

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Thompson Creek


Don't Fear the Taper

O'kay. Lot of chatter about how nervous "the market" is about the dreaded taper in the Fed's buying of US Treasury bonds. The talking heads are trying to convince us that the stock market is nervous about the prospect of rising long term interest rates. Maybe there is SOME nervousness, but it is summer and the volume is very low. Even on the declining days such that they are so far. There may be some declines in the averages to come, but I see money moving from the tech and medical to the basic materials. This is not hard to see.

But rising interest rates seem to FOLLOW inflation. Looking at the following chart from dshort I can not see where interest rates get out ahead of inflation and drive it down. Interest rates follow. The only exception is the Fed Funds rate when Volcker came in and artificially raised it to kill the inflation that was raging back in the early 1980's. Other than that interest rates, and that bond market that is so feared, followed inflation.

My copy of this chart isn't working so well. Take a look at  dshort's blog. This is where I initially found the chart. Good site!


And here is Blue Oyster Cult singing "Don't Fear the Taper".

All our times have come
Here but now they're gone
Seasons don't fear the taper
Nor do the wind, the sun or the rain... we can be like they are
Come on baby... don't fear the taper
Baby take my hand... don't fear the taper
We'll be able to fly... don't fear the taper
Baby I'm your man...

La la la la la
La la la la la


Keep an I on the BDI

Talk of good economic numbers out of China.

And ditto for Europe.

Makes me refocus on the Baltic Dry Index.

Chart at this site

And a daily quote

The price of dry bulk has been in a long flat channel. I would expect prices of ships to go up, and when the price starts breaking above the recent channel will most likely get the attention of more people.

Dianna Shipping is poised. And the rest will follow.

I won't get to far ahead of these though.

Control risk,

Monday, August 12, 2013


That is the sound that the short sellers in Deckers may be making soon. The price has had a run-up recently and has hit a ceiling. That is probably encouraging for those who think DECK is a short. But for those already short the recent high prices may be coming to represent a "line in the sand". ie, a decision point where they will have to decide whether to throw in the towel and admit they were wrong. And buyers and trend followers will be encouraged.

Anything may happen here. But DECK has the look of a stock that is set to make a move up through the recent highs. And I think that will commence some serious short covering. Time will tell. There is no sure thing in the stock market or in life.

Lines in the sand also provide low risk trading opportunities since they represent a point where traders or investors have to admit they are wrong and are thus prone to trade emotionally.

Don't be an emotional trader!
Get Directv.... LOL

control risk,

Friday, August 9, 2013

Blackberries ripen in August

Where I live in the Pacific Northwest the blackberries are getting ripe.

And on a related note???

this blackberry in the news today as I type this:


Thursday, August 8, 2013

MolyCorp, Molycorp. Wherefore art thou MCP?

Molycorp disappoints with their earnings.


Oh well......

I'll see how it acts tomorrow...


After You, My Dear Alphonse

Interesting talk about Europe starting to recover as evidenced by earnings reports better than expected. And news of China's better than expected exports sent metals higher. Copper particularly strong.  China here

The thought occurs to me. Nearly every country on earth is gaming the currency market in order to weaken their home currency to gain an export advantage. But with the world economy weak it is hard for anyone to gain an advantage because currencies are valued against each other and everybody is up against zero percent interest rates. But what happens if economies start to pick up. Then we are no longer "pushing on a string". Currencies will be able to fall if interest rates do not pick up, or are not allowed to pick up. But who will go first in raising interest rates and therefore allowing their own currency to rise?

The situation could be dangerous. No country wants to slow their own growth or their job creating exports by raising the value of their own currency. Except maybe China who is working on becoming a domestic consumer. But they will move slowly.

It is about time for the gold shorts to get squeezed anyway.


Dry Bulk Sentiment turns

I reluctantly closed out my positions in GNK and EGLE today with gains of about 10%.

The recent downturn in the Baltic Dry Index from recent tops has been starting to weigh on the shippers. And there is talk of GNK going broke. I think that their will be a rally in commoditys due to weakness in the USD and I think that shipping prices will gain as a result, but the "trade" must be closed due to weakness in these holdings. Dianna still looking good, tho, and I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks out to new highs. But that may wait until the BDY breaks out.

MCP still doing good on the strength of metals today.

Silver and gold look to start a rally on the weak dollar.

Long NUGT.
control that pesky risk!

Monday, August 5, 2013

Dollar Decline?

The activity in the currencies causes me to think that the US Dollar is going to commence a decline.

I don't know why this is my impression.