Saturday, July 28, 2012

Oh, well

What can I say. My timing is and has been terrrible lately.. Last week I felt the stirrings of a bear market so that is what I indicated. I won't dismiss those intuitions yet.

small short position. Holding.....

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Saturday, July 21, 2012

And this....

http://michael-hudson.com/2012/07/the-weaponization-of-economic-theory/

Obama is a tightwad

Have you heard of Forbes magazine? The conservative Forbes magazine. Perhaps Steven Forbes, the conservative who ran for president of the United States a few years back. You know, the same S. Forbes who bores you to tears whenever you hear him talk for more than a few seconds. He is one of those who is always preaching small government......

Here is an article from Forbes. The magazine.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2012/05/24/who-is-the-smallest-government-spender-since-eisenhower-would-you-believe-its-barack-obama/

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Round and round she goes....

There is an old friend, who I haven't seen recently. Of all the things I remember about this old friend is that he would often say "round and round she goes". A reference to the never ending change in the world and the similarity of current events to events past.  This poem by Yeats reminds me of the constant change and how things remain the same. And of the eternal spring of optimism that is the human predisposition. When we are not anticipating armageddon.

     THE SECOND COMING
    Turning and turning in the widening gyre
    The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
    Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
    The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
    The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
    The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.
 
    Surely some revelation is at hand;
    Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
    The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
    When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
    Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
    A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
    A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
    Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
    Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
 
    The darkness drops again but now I know
    That twenty centuries of stony sleep
    Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
    And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
    Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
 
William Butler Yeats
 
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Monday, July 16, 2012

Which way GOLD

A chart of RandGold. If nothing else the ticker symbol is good for a few percentage points..

Increased volume on the sideways movement after a decline....

the chart:
Control risk,
gh

Friday, July 13, 2012

Friday the 13th, 7/12

Little rally in the stocks today. Volume light overall, but the buying volume much heavier than the selling volume. Stocks rallied strong in the first hour on news that JPMorgan didn't lose as much as some had feared in the trading debacle of late. So the market rallied on news that wasn't as bad as expected. Volume strong in the morning, a mid day sideways motion with very low volume. Tells me that there aren't so many waiting for ANY rally to sell into. A positive sign. Then a breakout to the upside at the start of the last hour, didn't go far, but when some volume selling came in it was met with volume buying. As if big buyers looking for volume to buy into..... either shorts covering(most likely) or ....
The move made the chart look good!

A thought occured to me. There has been a good little rally going on the the grains due to the drought in the midwest. I wonder if a food inflation could cause a general inflation in this day and time????
And along the same lines. What if global warming is really taking effect. The impact on global food production could be severe.... Another '70's commodities rally from another cause....??

Just thinking.
Some charts:



And I noticed this little chart of a gold company:


Usually a pattern like the weekly above breaks down in a big move. Sometimes up in a big move.
Gold has the same pattern. A move either way could be the start of something big.


Control risk.
gh

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Spotting "investing" opportunities

Here is a chart showing something that I have noticed is often a sign of a long term bottom. Not always, of course, but often enough to get my attention. The trick is to be patient and get good position with a small to medium size position and wait for the break out.... Sometimes the wait is interminable though...

Don't be like this guy:

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Thursday, July 5, 2012

Crater lake. July 4th

Me and my better half took a drive up to Crater Lake yesterday, the 4th. Terrific day! The colors were unbelievable.  (I set  the date wrong on my camera)
Enjoy...



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Facebook revisited

Update on the FB.
If Facebook moves above $34 I think the interest will pick up. It may also be the result of a general resurgance of interest in stocks in general. For what reason I have no idea!

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Tuesday, July 3, 2012

What the market thinks

Last Thursday the Supreme court of the United States ruled that Congress had the right to implement the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in the way that it did. Those who have been against this law have a variety of reasons for why they think it is bad for the country. One of the more popular refrains is that "Obamacare" will cost the U.S. "jobs" and that it is bad for small business.

Below I have printed a chart of the Russell small cap index. An index of U.S. small corporations. Since the ruling by the Supremes the price has only gone up. WTF!! Ditto for the other indexes.

The right leaners in this country are fond of saying that "the market" knows best. Well, WTF!!
I know they are all liars and you know they are all liars. Do they realize what liars they are?

gh

Sunday, July 1, 2012

Nice rally! Will it continue?

Stocks had a nice rally of Friday as the Eurozone gave indications of papering over their debt problems for awhile.  Commodities did well. Oil up over $7.  A big move. Watch what a market does after a big move. That is a tell for the future.  Will traders sell quickly, or will they be content to hold long positions? Sentiment.

Does anyone remember that call by Goldman Sucks to short the market last week?  Why would a huge firm like that come out with a short term call like that? Were they short and needed to cover in a hurry? That seems the most likely explanation to me. A firm of their size cannot trade such a short term move unless there are traders on the other side of the trade.

In any case: I am bottom picking in the energy and steel areas. NG is bottoming?!.....
signs of buying in steel....
US Dollar weakness. Did you spot that little "rising wedge" in the UUP dollar index last week?
A rising wedge on declining volume is often followed by a drop down...... Look at UUP.




Will this be the low in interest rates? I don't hear many people talking that way. So maybe it will!

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