Friday, February 28, 2014

Dipsh**#s buy the dips

"The principle marketing of the stock, as you know, is on the way down. It is perfectly astonishing how much stock a man can get rid of on a decline."

That is a quote from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, by Lefevre.

I am reminded of that because today on CNBC they interviewed a "money manager" who talked about his fondness for Tesla (TSLA). The interviewer asked him if he had finally bought some Tesla. The gentleman responded that he had meant to buy it on the last pullback, but that it had gone up too fast and he had no chance to buy.

I could not stop laughing.

I guess he prefers to buy things that are going down.

He would be one to wait for Enron to pullback before he buys. And the weaker the better!

Todays market action was a follow through on the action of the first of the year. It doesn't matter the particular reason, whether the early year selling was due to tax loss selling due to changes in tax laws, or if global events are looming. China, Ukraine, S. America riots. Whatever. The point is that the market is getting nervous at all time highs.

I added to my VXX today.

control your risk!


Technical "Key Reversal"

This is a pic of the S&P today at 1245 PST....

The day started with a big rally to new highs and then keeled over.

Ostensibly on worries of the Ukrainian situation.

Yuan sudden weakness

Here is an interesting chart of the Chinese Yuan

The Chinese govt. has been controlling the appreciation of the currency in their attempt to move to a domestic consumption economy and not so dependent on exports.
What is happening?

And gold seems to be tied to the Yuan. Recent reports of large Chinese consumption of gold would lead me to conclude that a weak Yuan would make gold purchases more expensive in China....

Is gold prices in Yuan? Or USD?

Is that changing? If this becomes a story will Americans step up to the plate and buy. The dollar is weak today as well vs. the Euro. The Yen has shown strength lately. Usually a bad sign....

Just thinkin'



For some time I have been using Deckers Outdoor as a predictor of short term moves in the DIA, (the DOW).

some days the charts are uncannily alike and DECK often leads...

This today:

Deck Dissapoints

Today the chart looks like:


Something wrong....

A few days ago I posted about Citi group having "something wrong" with the company. This was because the action of the price and volume did not match what I would have expected given the rest of the market.
Today this: Fraud

This part of the article got my attention:

But earlier this month, Citi learned that OSA had been suspended from being awarded new Mexican government contracts. Citi then began a review of its credit exposure. Pemex said a significant portion of the accounts receivables recorded by Banamex were fraudulent and that the valid receivables were substantially less than $585 million.

"earlier this month"..... That is when I noticed something wrong with the price action.

So some big people knew and were trading on the news. Or not trading on the news.
And that does not mean it was not public news, just that it wasn't widely known.
What else is new?
The point is that tape reading has a useful function. It helps avoid risk.

I closed out a large pos in CLF. I held as long as I could and gave the trade every opportunity to continue what I thought would be a rapid rise. Sold at break even.

I closed out my CORN pos with 2/3 of a pos on due to the fact of sideways movement on large volume.... Maybe I didn't wait long enough. We'll see. I am risk averse lately....


Friday, February 21, 2014


Cliff Resources (CLF) getting a bid this morning after a few down days on lower volume....


Tuesday, February 18, 2014


There is your CORN breakout.
Buy some more....

controlling risk,

War causes inflation....

Putin and Russia

I read Tom Clancy's  "Command Authority" a couple days ago. It is amazing how that guy was onto current world events. I will miss his genius.

The events in the Ukraine are following the script... so far.

Ukraine Dead


I was doing my biweekly screen of different chart patterns. I do this to spot money laying around. I am often struck immediately by certain charts and they usually are the profitable trades. This following chart struck me immediately before I knew what it represented.

It is a chart of CPI, and ETF that tracks the consumer price index.... ie, inflation....

If I was placing bets I would want to be long based on this chart.....

Control risk,

Friday, February 14, 2014

Chart O' the Day

It has been said that history doesn't repeat, it rhymes.

The reason I look at price charts is to see the rhymes.

Is this one? Only time will tell for sure...

control your risk,

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Chart O' the Day

control your risk,

1150 pst

GLD and SLV are acting differently the past few days. It is almost as if there is quiet accumulation.
Not the herky-jerky action that typifies the silver and gold markets....


Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Deere & CORN

Here is one reason why corn and the grains in general may get bid up this year. And depending on the size of the crop the farmers may even be able to buy a new green tractor.
I sing that song when I'm playing on my green tractor...

But the weather may be the story later this year:

"El Nino likely late this year"

That is the headline here.

control risk,

Tuesday, February 11, 2014


Yellen to Create Inflation

Janet Yellen, the new chair of the FED in testimony today before Congress said the unemployment rate alone isn’t an adequate gauge of labor-market health.

She went on to say that the Fed would focus on inflation. The FED will focus on creating inflation.

Yellen likes gold prices to go up

That was the result of her comments anyway....



Eagle shipping is rounding the corner.

Back to the top of the range????

The Baltic Dry index has been in a funk due to the emerging mkt troubles and export bans in S. America. The last few days have seen some minor upticks. The BDI seems to run in trends up and down with few aberrant days in each move.

control risk,

Monday, February 10, 2014

Gold News

As I've noticed lately the stocks of the gold producers have been stronger than usual. Many of them seem to be forming a bottom after a long decline.

Here may be one possible reason:


I was impressed by this chart from the article linked above




Citigroup is weak

So what is wrong with Citi?
Of all the banks over the last few years it is the one that continues to not make progress.
Citi hit $5 a share way back in '09 if I remember right.
They did that reverse 10:1 split a couple years ago, presumably to get the price over $5 so the big funds could buy it.
But the price languishes and has been particularly weak lately.
They really are too big to fail, you know!

As the banks go so goes the markets.

Control risk,

Saturday, February 8, 2014

Thinking Ahead

The last couple of weeks have been interesting, to say the least, in the markets. The volatility has been beneficial to this trader.

The last couple days have seen a sharp shift in the market outlook of the talking heads from negative to positive as the averages hit a "bottom" and moved sharply higher. (See my Jan. 5 post as I felt the bottom happen)

However the US dollar continued it's weakness even as the stock market went up for the last two days. That is a divergence from what had tended to happen over the last few months. The talk of a stronger economy had seemed to keep the stocks up AND the dollar up.

The weakness in stocks of the last couple weeks however has weakened the US dollar. If the selloff was triggered by speculation of weakness in emerging markets as a result of a tapering of USTreasuries by the FED then I would expect the dollar to gain strength with an expectation of higher interest rates going hand in hand with a strong economy.

If the new FED chair, Janet Yellen proves to be the dove on inflation that she is rumored to be, then it would make sense for interest rates to be kept low for an "extended period" even in a relatively strong economy. And that would be detrimental to the value of a dollar, and inflationary. And that would explain the Dollar weakness, the two day rally in the stocks and the rally in gold and gold stocks. And if she keeps money easy due to a fear of a global emerging markets rout that would explain things as well....
Or the world knows the stocks are going to crash and they are buying gold with their dollars that they have from selling stocks.....

Whatever happens I will keep reading the tape and adjusting as needed.
Commodities look to be strong. Oil is going up, gold looks like it might go up. Silver finishes surprisingly strong Friday, and the grains are trying to rally.
Looks like a weak dollar to me!
It seems like back in '06 the markets were strong when the dollar was weak.
I think the phrase is ZIRP.



John Deere and company is looking strong.
Here is a picture of my baby three years ago.
bot some JD a couple days ago.

Friday, February 7, 2014

gold and silver

Why do gold and silver seem so strong today?
Usually, lately if the stock market is up gold is down.
Not today.
And that continues the recent strength in the gold and silver producers.


Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Corn rounding the CORNer.

Corn. Yes, the grain. As noted on the ETF CORN looks to be making a bottom. Probably the weather in the Midwest.

FinViz Corn

I like the rounding bottom and their has been increased volume in the ETF as this grain has moved sideways.
Still not able to post my chart....