Sunday, November 30, 2014

The Dog Didn't Bark

The Swiss dog didn't bark.

DOG

And gold in the futures is down sharply.

But there was a vote. Someone actually voted on this question.
The world is thinking about this question.

As the votes pick up in frequency we will begin to have a problem.

gh

Friday, November 28, 2014

Energy Costs Plunge

The Organization of Petroleum Exporters (OPEC) met in Vienna over the Thanksgiving holiday. The decision out of that meeting was to leave their collective output of oil unchanged. Oil and energy opened today significantly lower.

A continuation of the decline in crude prices has the potential to significantly disrupt the production of shale oil in the U.S. and Canada. The higher cost producers will find it harder to be profitable, and after these recent years of low interest rates many are almost certainly overleveraged. Another example of a bubble created by low interest rates, and how they cause distortion?

So the producers of energy are lower this morning.  Gold and silver as well, but not so much as energy. My feeling remains that a prolonged period of low energy prices will counter-intuitively cause an increase in the velocity of money that will lead to the start of inflation, particularly as interest rates stay below zero real rate.

For the long term the inflation plays must be a buy.

After the shakeout in energy, perhaps in two or three years, oil will resume the rise.

Todays charts:

I am thankful this morning that I lightened up on my oil bets two days ago. I will watch how the remaining dogs react and act accordingly.
Watch the railroads. They have been dependent on shipping crude for the last couple years.

Control your risk,
gh

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

China Nuclear

It seems that the Chinese are committed to nuclear energy for the long term. Long term is how the Chinese do things.

China Nuclear

Under Construction by Country

China Nuc Cycle


More

Uranium




There is a lot of information on nuclear. Natural gas will give nuclear a run for the money in the short run, and there are questions about the supply of uranium in the longer run. I am looking for a bottom here in the U miners.

CCJ- Cameco at the top of the list.

and  UEC for the beta....

Control risk,

gh





Friday, November 21, 2014

Wedgies

The topic of rising wedges in a price chart came up recently. A rising wedge on declining volume will often break sharply. (If it doesn't finish with a blowoff top)

And the pattern is fairly reliable in different timeframes.

Conversely, a declining wedge on declining volume will often rally sharply, as the selling dries up.

Of course no price is fail-safe. Always protect yourself. That is what trading is. Expecting the unexpected while trading the expected.

Control risk,
gh

Thursday, November 20, 2014

Making Immigrants Legal





The President is scheduled to speak on the U.S. immigration and illegal alien question tonight. After years of inaction by the U.S. Congress, the President is expected to use executive action to move forward on this issue.

The Republicans, always the representative of big business, will accuse him of an abuse of power and do what they can to impeach this president.

From the perspective of the working man in this country I think it will be good for the law abiding immigrants to be granted a path to citizenship. For years the fact that these people were here illegally made them willing to accept whatever job they could find, and to not question the pay or the lack of benefits. And they would not question how they were treated by their employers. All for the fear of not finding another job, or of getting deported.
As these workers gain legal status they will change these behaviors and will become advocates for themselves in the workplace. This will cause upward wage pressure. And that is what the world and this country needs to finally regain some footing economically. When the gains of productivity are spread equitably and broadly in the economy the economy gains stability. When the gains are shared in an meritocratic way, and not hoarded by abuse of power, the output of the society is put to work again, or is able to be saved for later use.
The reason the broader economy has been so slow to stimulate over the last years is due to this lack of wealth in the broad bottom and middle of society. Over time this must change.

Support the President in his actions. He works for the common man in ways that the common man is unable to appreciate.

gh

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

PetroBras

After watching the news unfold and how the stock is trading and taking into account what the talking heads are debating on the tube.
I am beginning to buy PBR.
Not too much for now, just a little pressure on the shorts.

LOL

control your risk,
gh

Something Happening

look at gold.
energy.
US Dollar??

gh

Look For a Bottom in Energy

Here is the news for oil inventory this morning.

Inventory reports

And here is what price did in response to larger than expected inventories of oil.


Look for a bottom in energy prices.
gh

Thursday, November 13, 2014

GLD Revisited

The GLD and gold the metal made new lows recently. GLD in particular has seen volume continue to dry up. The new lows in GLD were made on low volume. This is technically something that I find encouraging from the standpoint of picking an entry in the miners.

I know, if you are a big time stock advisor, you will say that people are forgetting about gold. And that it is becoming increasingly irrelevant. From a technical aspect that is exactly what the charts tell me. And those who are short this chart are in increasing danger of getting squeezed, ie, who will they buy from?

With that said, an enduring bottom usually takes time to form and the sentiment takes time to change. A sharp short covering rally often has a catalytic effect on sentiment, however.

Here are the charts of GLD as a representative of the gold price and sentiment.

Control your risk,
gh

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Catalyst

cat·a·lyst
ˈkad(ə)ləst/
noun
noun: catalyst; plural noun: catalysts
  1. a substance that increases the rate of a chemical reaction without itself undergoing any permanent chemical change.
    • a person or thing that precipitates an event.
      "the governor's speech acted as a catalyst for debate"


      So, the Saudis are intent on keeping their production raised, and intent on capturing market share. The price of oil goes down for an extended period due to oversupply, they increase gross revenues to themselves, and put the extra money into US Treasuries.

      The average consumer gets a windfall, interest rates stay low, business profits go up.

      And inflation gets a shot in the arm.

      Catalyst.

      Just thinking,
      Again.

      Control risk,
      gh

Monday, November 10, 2014

Uranium News

Here is the cause of the rally in the uranium stocks Here.


I tend to get my news late.....


the "Megatons to Megawatts" program ended at the end of 2013. Perhaps the price of uranium will trend to the upside from here. There will be competition from natural gas of course.

Gold miners retraced most of Friday's gains. (MOST OF)

It is to early to call a bottom in gold and the miners, that takes time. But when the Yen starts to rally we will see gold rally. And when Japan finally succumbs to their debt we will see the mother of all gold rallies. Some Day...


Until then....

Friday, November 7, 2014

Uranium





The Republicans control the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate after the recent elections.

Will the Republicans be pacifists in the realm of relations with Russia? I think not.

The Ukraine situation continues to fester.

The economic sanctions seem to be causing Russian distress as judged by the value of the ruble, which has plunged lately.

Putin controls 50% of the worlds supply of uranium

If this "Colder War" continues I see Mr. Putting using uranium as an economic weapon. Perhaps restricting exports to the west as he sells to China.

And the prices in the uranium space exploded to the upside today. With the type of volume and momentum that signifies something longer lasting than a one day rally.

Take a look at Cameco. They mine uranium in Canada.


Scale in these stocks. Just a few millions at a time....

gh

Oh, by the way, did I mention that it is my personal belief that Putin is bankrolling ISIL.

Gold Shorts

We are probably seeing some covering by the gold shorts this morning.

And the Yen may bounce soon. Maybe......

Notice the volume on that GLD chart over the last three days. Heavy sideways volume is a sign of a possible bottom. (for awhile at least)

Control risk,
gh

Thursday, November 6, 2014

We Have A Consensus !

As I listen to the financial channels over the last few days it seems that all I hear regarding currencies is that shorting the Euro and the Yen are sure bets. I have heard no dissenters to that sentiment.

This may be what has caused a feeling of foreboding in myself regarding the action in the stock markets.

As I said earlier these markets seem surreal.

And I can't prove it with charts, but the price behavior in the miners seems to have changed as compared to interest rates and the TBT.

We'll see.

Control risk,
gh