Friday, January 31, 2014

Volatility breaks out

The volatility ETF (VXX) broke above resistance today on heavy volume.
It looks to me like some deep pockets are buying some insurance against the downside.

Let's see if I can post a picture:

I guess not. I don't know what is up with this blogsite.

Anyway, the action was not positive today.

here, try this::::  vxx


"The Selling is Very Orderly"

I love it when the talking heads, the managers of funds, refer to the selling as "very orderly" and use that as an excuse to avoid telling people to get out of the markets. Of course the selling is orderly. It is always an orderly line out of a theatre. Until the fire starts burning those at the rear. Then it tends to become a little "disorderly". I prefer the head of the line. Even if I miss the end of the movie!! gh

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Friday, January 24, 2014


Whew! The hardest part is the sitting tight!
Covered my large short pos. and sold my vxx.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

et tu Japan?

If there is one thing that comes to mind that has the potential to derail the world it is Japan and their debt. If interest rates manage to rise in Japan the Japanese govt. will go bankrupt and default on their loans.
Is it time to short Japanese govt. bonds?  The trade has been simmering for some time.

There appears to be some accumulation in the short JGB ETF : JGBS
Take a look



For some time I have noticed what APPEARS to be correlation between the price action of Deckers Outdoor and the DOW and the stock averages in general. The markets seem weak to me, as is DECK.

GOOGLE won't let me post pics again.
Take a look at a chart of DECK


Tuesday, January 21, 2014


I don't know how the stock averages can keep going up. There is no buy volume.

The gold stocks have some volume......

And I figured out how to make this Google machine put in the pictures again!


Wednesday, January 15, 2014


The former head of MolyCorp is now in charge of Niocorp.
And the stock has a head of steam up.

I don't mess with the penny stocks much. Usually the low volume and volatility are hard to manage profitably. I do have a small position in NIOBF....

This was from a few days ago

Mark Smith

Control risk,

Friday, January 10, 2014

Weak Jobs, Weak Dollar

The monthly employment report was disappointing as it came in dramatically below estimates of the smartest guys in the nation.

71,000 jobs created last month. The number was met with incredulity on the tube...

Bloomberg here

and in the print media


The general reaction was one of disbelief and a search for answers. Most agree the number will be revised up in the coming months.

The debate over the effects of unemployment insurance on job seekers and the effects of retiring workers dropping out were the main topics.

Bottom line. The economy may not be as strong as we would like.

What does this mean? Low rates for as long as the eye can see.....

And a weak economy  means a weak dollar. And the trading action in the currency ETF's this morning leads me to conclude this weakness may persist, and the dollar may commence a slide.

Housing strong.
Dry bulk shippers weak on the recent weakness in the Baltic Dry index. Dollar weakness may correct that..??
EEM, emerging markets strong this morning.
And we may see some shorts covering in the gold and silver markets.

control risk,

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

High Times

There are some stocks and companies looking to profit from the legalization of marijuana.
The stock of late has been Medbox. (MDBX) The make secure safes for medicines.
The partnered with AVT company, who makes vending machines.
MDBX has gone from $12 to $90 in the last six trading sessions. That is not a typo!
So I looked at AVT. They only started a rally yesterday.
Hmmmm! So I started buying yesterday.

Closed out my position in AVTC this morning. What a ride.

So far this is the most profitable trade of the new year for me. And I probably closed too early!
An 82% profit overnight.


I have been trying to get this posted all day. Blogger won't let me upload the chart of AVTC.

The striking thing about this trade was when I went to sell my few thousand shares they were bought in 100 lots. The second sell I made took about 5 minutes to sell and the price went up about $1.50 as the market bought my shares. 100 shares at a time!

When the first few thousand went that way it made me sell the rest.

A strange but profitable day.


Friday, January 3, 2014


Money, Money, Money. MOneh!


Just thinking about M2

Definition of 'M2'
A measure of money supply that includes cash and checking deposits (M1) as well as near money. "Near money" in M2 includes savings deposits, money market mutual funds and other time deposits, which are less liquid and not as suitable as exchange mediums but can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.

Investopedia explains 'M2'
M2 is a broader money classification than M1, because it includes assets that are highly liquid but not cash. A consumer or business typically won’t use savings deposits and other non-M1 components of M2 when making purchases or paying bills, but it could convert them to cash in relatively short order.

M1 and M2 are closely related, and economists like to include the more broadly defined definition for M2 when discussing the money supply, because modern economies often involve transfers between different account types. For example, a business may transfer $10,000 from a money market account to its checking account. This transfer would increase M1, which doesn’t include money market funds, while keeping M2 stable, since M2 contains money market accounts.

That from Investopedia.

This from Pink Floyd:

Of course the velocity of money depends on what size of a vinyl record you are playing......