Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Break Time!

I sold the rest of my 'weak dollar' trades today. Started selling a few days ago. This trade saved the year.
The Federal Reserve changed their language in the statement released today and seemed to put themselves back on track for a rate hike sooner rather than later.

I will not attempt to predict whether gradual rate hikes will crash the "fragile" economy or not. What I do expect is for the speculative markets to begin anew to worry about interest rates rising, and more specifically, worry about the negative effects of a strong U.S. Dollar.

There is no hurry. And no shame in buying things back if wrong. Right now it seems to me that the probabilities are for a weakening of stocks and real asset derivatives.

We may revisit the junk debt and the emerging market worries. Even as China surprises?

Stay dry.


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