Short post. I'll just throw this out. Watching the trading on this Greek debt day....Puerto Rico in the news as well.
But, is an announcement pending. Seems something at this point in the day is cooking... the way things are trading...
Just for the record. Might be a sharp rally.
gh
Monday, June 29, 2015
Friday, June 26, 2015
Materials and Mines
I just feels like it is about time for THE bottom in prices of the basic metals and thus of the miners and suppliers of miners.
Every day for the last months, it seems, the talking heads on the business channels are talking about the TOP in the markets. Every day the question is, "Is this the top?", or "The stock market is approaching bubble territory". But the market keeps grinding up. Not zooming up, grinding up.
And in the next segment they will talk about weakness in China or the effect of rising interest rates on the economy and/or the stocks. If there is one thing I have learned over the years it is to not give much credence to what the talking heads are warning of if the prices of the securities affected by the predicted calamity are not collapsing or giving signs of selling. In fact lately the buying comes on the dips. It is not the type of selling that is typical of a general market top.
To go further, my impression of the economy is influenced by what I see around myself. I live in a tiny backwater of America, far from the economic centers. A pickup in the economy in our little backwater shows that strength in the economy has the pressure, to use an analogy, of blood being pushed through the smallest capillaries in a body. The road that I live on is busy. Much more so than in the last few years. The log trucks are running again, and the delivery vans are busy. And the attitude of people is optimistic despite some lingering unease left over from the last financial crash. If things are picking up and people are still cautious, then we have a long ways to go.
And last I heard we are still making more people in the world. And they still have connectivity to the world so they still want things.
It feels like a bottom in the demand thing.
Time will tell,
gh
Oh! I just post this and Josh Brown comes on talking about the breakout in Deere (DE). I had took my eyes off of that one! Confirmation?
gh
Every day for the last months, it seems, the talking heads on the business channels are talking about the TOP in the markets. Every day the question is, "Is this the top?", or "The stock market is approaching bubble territory". But the market keeps grinding up. Not zooming up, grinding up.
And in the next segment they will talk about weakness in China or the effect of rising interest rates on the economy and/or the stocks. If there is one thing I have learned over the years it is to not give much credence to what the talking heads are warning of if the prices of the securities affected by the predicted calamity are not collapsing or giving signs of selling. In fact lately the buying comes on the dips. It is not the type of selling that is typical of a general market top.
To go further, my impression of the economy is influenced by what I see around myself. I live in a tiny backwater of America, far from the economic centers. A pickup in the economy in our little backwater shows that strength in the economy has the pressure, to use an analogy, of blood being pushed through the smallest capillaries in a body. The road that I live on is busy. Much more so than in the last few years. The log trucks are running again, and the delivery vans are busy. And the attitude of people is optimistic despite some lingering unease left over from the last financial crash. If things are picking up and people are still cautious, then we have a long ways to go.
And last I heard we are still making more people in the world. And they still have connectivity to the world so they still want things.
It feels like a bottom in the demand thing.
Time will tell,
gh
Oh! I just post this and Josh Brown comes on talking about the breakout in Deere (DE). I had took my eyes off of that one! Confirmation?
gh
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
Silver Standard Strength
Why is Silver Standard Resources going up as silver goes down......?
Whenever I see a stock that acts strong as others are weak, or as the underlying fundamental would suggest weakness, I pay attention.
gh
Whenever I see a stock that acts strong as others are weak, or as the underlying fundamental would suggest weakness, I pay attention.
gh
Thursday, June 11, 2015
Paradoxical Effects
Sometimes there are unexpected effects from changes that otherwise are interpreted to cause a particular change.
One of these may be the effect of a rise in interest rates on shale oil and gas producers. It is my understanding that the boom in shale and in fracturing technology over the last few years has been in great part a product of low interest rates. If rates start to rise, and in particular if they rise too rapidly as they have of late, those oil and gas producers with high borrowing costs and high debt levels may be impacted enough to destroy supply in this sector. This would be an example of a paradoxical effect. Normally rising interest rates are thought to constrain demand. But producers going broke would cause a supply constraint. Come to think of it, low interest rates and the general "supply side" emphasis over the last decades seems to have resulted in the commoditization of everything, with low prices worldwide. Not discounting the effect of cheap labor. A double whammy, perhaps? And deflation prompts lower interest rates. (See Soros on "reflexivity") If this phenomenon reverses there could be hell to pay. Someday......
I am making no predictions about these companies, the charts are just a couple of those that I watch, but are two that have had trouble keeping up despite the rising price of oil lately, and to a lesser extent do not seem to be well correlated with any small bounces in the price of natural gas.
just thinking,
gh
One of these may be the effect of a rise in interest rates on shale oil and gas producers. It is my understanding that the boom in shale and in fracturing technology over the last few years has been in great part a product of low interest rates. If rates start to rise, and in particular if they rise too rapidly as they have of late, those oil and gas producers with high borrowing costs and high debt levels may be impacted enough to destroy supply in this sector. This would be an example of a paradoxical effect. Normally rising interest rates are thought to constrain demand. But producers going broke would cause a supply constraint. Come to think of it, low interest rates and the general "supply side" emphasis over the last decades seems to have resulted in the commoditization of everything, with low prices worldwide. Not discounting the effect of cheap labor. A double whammy, perhaps? And deflation prompts lower interest rates. (See Soros on "reflexivity") If this phenomenon reverses there could be hell to pay. Someday......
I am making no predictions about these companies, the charts are just a couple of those that I watch, but are two that have had trouble keeping up despite the rising price of oil lately, and to a lesser extent do not seem to be well correlated with any small bounces in the price of natural gas.
just thinking,
gh
Monday, June 1, 2015
Where is the Exit?
It seems like the long bond market is coming around to the reality that interest rates WILL rise at some point and that point is getting closer every day now. Economic numbers out this morning show an U.S. economy that is picking up steam.
It has been a 30 plus year bond bull market. At some point the idea will start to spread that it may be time to shift from long bonds to a shorter duration bond, at the least. And given the length of time that bonds have been in an uptrend there are surely some lopsided positions out there in the aggregate.
It does seem that the bond market may be setting up for a rout of sorts...
Although I don't know what the reasonable alternative might be.
Can money just vanish? I guess we know the answer to that. The financial markets are THE saving vehicle in these times and there is no real backing to any of it. Except the liquidity in markets that set prices. And there are rumors of a lack of liquidity in the bond markets.
The bond FUNDs may lead the way facilitated by the interconnectedness of modern "investors". Are there any real buyers left?
control risk,
gh
It has been a 30 plus year bond bull market. At some point the idea will start to spread that it may be time to shift from long bonds to a shorter duration bond, at the least. And given the length of time that bonds have been in an uptrend there are surely some lopsided positions out there in the aggregate.
It does seem that the bond market may be setting up for a rout of sorts...
Although I don't know what the reasonable alternative might be.
Can money just vanish? I guess we know the answer to that. The financial markets are THE saving vehicle in these times and there is no real backing to any of it. Except the liquidity in markets that set prices. And there are rumors of a lack of liquidity in the bond markets.
The bond FUNDs may lead the way facilitated by the interconnectedness of modern "investors". Are there any real buyers left?
control risk,
gh
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