Wednesday, January 19, 2011

is this the top?

O'kay, how do I put this?
Most  of the stock charts that I look at have had about two weeks of declines on increased volume, or they have made new highs on lower volume, or they have gone sideways on increased volume. These are all signs of "distribution". It usually mean that the large holders of stocks are taking advantage of the buying coming in, to sell.
I have been hearing for the last month or so that the "main street" is moving from bonds to  stocks. This means the little guys. Those who wait until it is safe to go back into stocks. It usually means that the last ones to buy are buying. After they buy, who is left to buy? Answer: no-one.
The above signs point to the signs of a top in the indexes.  If you invest your 401-k, or your 403b, you invest in funds that try to match the indexes. The signs that I see point to the big boys selling to you. After you buy, there is no-one left to buy from you.
The indexes have been going higher lately on lower volume. This is not good.
There are NO GUARANTEES, but all each of us can hope to do is put the odds in our favor over the long run. The odds are now not in favor of the indexes going appreciably higher.
There has been a "buy the dips" mentality lately. If that holds, the indexes may go higher. But, sooner or later it fails, because it is the strategy of the losers.
To those who are not educated about the markets: The odds of the stock indexes going much higher are getting worse.
If the indexes go sharply lower, will you be phychologically able to get out?
Or will you hope?

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