Thursday, February 17, 2011

Iran, oil, gold, silver, the USD...

Sometimes as I sit and watch the markets, and filter them through the news that is flowing into my ears I get these suspicions that maybe there are things happening in the markets that the news providers don't know yet. Actually I know that this happens all the time in individual stories, and sometimes in the big macro stories.
So oil is trying to act strong today, gold is up again, silver is up strongly, the dollar is down, and the stock market continues up, but on very slim volume.
There is rioting all over the middle-east as the Egypt unrest spreads. The U.S. is being very circumspect, not wanting to get on the wrong side of history again.(A move I applaud.) And now there is news that Iran wants to send two warships through the Suez canal. Something that they haven't done in a long time, I understand. Why would they be doing this now. Is the timing deliberate. I think it probably is. I think Iran would love to provoke a confrontation with the U.S. and Israel that would turn all of the anger in the middle-east toward the U.S. and Israel. And if they started something, what could we do? Of course we would respond in force to any aggression toward Israel, but the world knows the state of our finances. Another war would be another additional deficit pressure. And I don't think we would find the world willing to finance another U.S. war. Usually the U.S. dollar gets strong during times of stress, but there will come the day when safe haven is otherwhere.
And where is OBL? Would he ally with the Iranians?
I just get the feeling that something is up.......I hope not.

No comments:

Post a Comment

All comments are appreciated as it will give me a chance to adjust my content to any real people who may be out there. Thank you. gh