Tuesday, July 5, 2011

A local favorite of mine

There is a small bank in the U.S. Pacific Northwest called Umpqua Bank. (The Umpqua is a local river, and the name of the native tribe)
A look at the chart of this bank shows a tight consolidation, or coil that has the potential to break out.

This coiling is very evident on the weekly bar chart above. For a longer term trade I would buy as the price breaks out above $12, and add at $13. If the price continues higher over time after that, an additional buy at about $16 and then hold.
The reason for this strategy is that IF the price goes higher I want to have some of this stock. And IF the price KEEPS going higher I want more of this stock. Of course, if the price turns down and my average price is costing me more than about 15% I would get out.(For "investments" I tend to take a little more percentage risk, depending on the volatility of the stock.) The point is that from where this stock is now, and where it and the rest of the market has been over recent history, IF it starts up it has the potential to be the start of a major move.
Again, if I trade this way, using these rules for all my investments/trades I always have a big position on with the stocks that make the big moves in my favor, and if they are losers, they are small losers...
And the daily chart of UMPQ:

Alway control risk! In trading and life.....

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