Thursday, April 23, 2015

Dollar Top?

The U.S. Dollar may decline from here. The chart of UUP certainly suggests a decline in the Dollar Index.

A decline in the U.S. Dollar could be the result of a decision by the Federal Reserve to delay raising interest rates as has been expected. This delay, or change in mindset, may be due to the effects on the U.S. balance of payments and on the exchange of goods in particular. 3M came out with earnings today (HERE). Their earnings have suffered due to the strength of the USD as this raises the price for foreign buyers of goods. In the spirit of "mercantilism" that seems to have become the way countries compete in this modern age, and due to the fact that the first country to actually raise interest rates and thus appreciate their currency outright give up advantage in trade and thus employment, I believe the Fed will delay an actual rate increase. As this becomes apparent the USD will decline.

Then we will be back to worrying about the foreign holders of US Debt, and thus long term interest rates again.

GLD looks demoralized lately, as do some of the energy and miner stocks. So now is a good time for a bottom, as investors look the other way....

Here is an interesting read:

Minneapolis Fed

And some background on Balance of Payments

Furthermore, it seems that for too long the Fed has been "pushing on a string". As the U.S. economy starts to show some traction I can't imagine the Fed not using their increased leverage.

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