Wednesday, April 6, 2016


Here is a thought.

Let us assume the world is oversupplied with oil. So there should be a fundamental pressure to push down on the price of oil.

Several nations, mostly in the middle east, have grown accustomed over the decades to a relatively high price of oil and their societies are dependent on a subsidy from oil exports.

Recent liquidations by sovereign wealth funds pushed down the stock markets. The liquidations were presumably to raise cash for sustaining the economies and societies of oil producers suffering from a low oil price.

Oil is mostly transacted in U.S. Dollars. Oil overproduction tends to support a strong dollar. However, years of profits by the oil producers were invested in stocks and bonds, and as sovereign funds liquidate those funds, the currencies realized are spent in the real economy. To the extent that the original profits were in US Dollars, can we assume that the liquidation of profits will be in US Dollars? This should be the "freeing up" of US Dollars. The spending of savings. Perhaps the reversal of the financial economy/"saving economy", and resuming the spending of that 'savings'.

As these monies are recirculated they will stimulate. Demand for oil will rise, the price will rise, inflation will become evident, interest rates must rise, bonds will be sold; those savings come into the economy providing further stimulation and demand. A reflexive feedback occurs. Inflation is seen as good after decades of disinflation. Big bond holders reduce holdings and invest in equities.

We may still have a "5th Wave" coming in equities.

And then the oil runs out. Yikes!

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