Thursday, April 28, 2011

Reasons to not be in the stock market....

There has been a good bid in the TLT lately. I see an inverse H&H on the daily, with the right side shoulder higher than the left. Neckline just above where we are now. Buying in the present market where everybody is screaming about inflation just has to be flight to quality.

I have been seeing a lot of individual stocks that have what appears to be distribution over the last couple months. Including many of the natural resource stocks.

And I would have to conclude that there is a massive short interest in the USDollar, with the possibility of a violent countertrend rally at any time. When the US dollar goes up the indexes go down lately. (For the last year?)

I just can't get myself to stay long the indexes lately. And got a little short the S&P today. Tops are a process and it seems to me that stocks have been trying to top out for some time now. Maybe wrong. It is all in the timing and I'm probably early.

OH, I almost forgot. I got short silver again. Made a little on the last shorts, made some  on the long side early today, short a little again...
Here is that 20 yr. long US Treasury chart,
And something to ponder:

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