Wednesday, October 31, 2012

GASL update

I use quite a few posts to point out what I think may be good trades or even good investments but at heart I am a trader. So I only want to be around for the profits, not the losses.

I don't talk much about when to exit a trade. This may be because it is the hardest part of trading. The entries are relatively easy to spot. The exits not so much. The main thing about exiting is to remember why the trade was put on in the first place. When those conditions change the trade is no longer valid as a trade. This rule applies to "investing" as well, defined in my mind as a longer time frame trade usually based more on fundamentals as opposed to technical indicators. Keep in mind what your "edge" is. The traders edge is the basis of his advantage in the market. My edge is an ability to see momentum in the price and volume and to curb my emotions and remember my "edge". (the second part is the hardest)

A while ago I pointed out the volume bulge in GASL and used it as an indicator of a bottom forming in this security. GASL corresponds to the gas producers Anadarko Pete (ANP) and Apache(APA).

There probably is a bottom forming in these stocks. But the move up is some time away. I had established a position in GASL and was waiting for an anticipated strong move up. There was a break to the upside and the expected pullback to a range. Then the price broke up out of the range but the volume was pathetic. This indicated to me that the enthusiasm for this security was not there. And that meant that all the "me's" out there were probably going to throw in the towel. I wanted to be the first if that started to happen. It is important to recognize when the "big money" is buying, but it is also important to recognize that there is a lot of "little" money that can stampede without continued support of the big players, whose timeframe is longer.
So I have exited this trade with a decent profit, but not the size I had expected.  Now I must look for signs of renewed momentum if I want to put on another position in this security. I don't know when that may be. The danger is that this security becomes a favorite and I let my judgement get clouded by my past hopes!
I hope the chart makes sense:

gh

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All comments are appreciated as it will give me a chance to adjust my content to any real people who may be out there. Thank you. gh