Friday, October 12, 2012

Markets drift lower

Recent declines in the stock markets have been met with breathless coverage by the talking heads. My take on the volume and price moves is a decline without urgency. Of course at some point there will be a flurry of activity as the weak hands throw in the towel. Then the real test will begin.

But many are calling the recent tops in the stock and precious metals markets and the energy markets the start of a precipitous decline.  My experience with major market tops is that they take a long time to form and are characterized by a sideways trend with above average volume, particularly on the declines.  I haven't seen that so far in the last couple of weeks. I see declines below the previous day on lower volume than the previous days. The markets usually press this pattern until they get some selling volume, then those waiting for that volume will buy.
And then the process may repeat for two or three cycles before there is a definitive top or a continuation of the trend.
Given that much talk is of the coming "fiscal cliff" the lack of volume is unwarranted if there is to be a precipitous and sustained decline.
I feel that we are on the verge of a sustained decline in the U.S. dollar with the inflation of assets inherent in that.

But we may have to do a gut check in silver. These markets nearly always go for the easy money. And there are probably a lot of traders who will sell below the recent low... So other traders will shoot for those orders....
Meanwhile Chesapeake keeps pushing against the ceiling... Recent continued gains in UNG/natgas prices will push these producers up....  CHK,  APA, GASL, APC


control risk, (don't let your losses get big)

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