Sunday, January 25, 2015

Where are we?

O'kay. The ECB did the big bond buying thing last week. And the U.S. stock market went up one day and then down. There was no follow through on the long awaited salvation of the world economy.

The conversation seems to be changing evermore to the topic of currency wars and what the endgame may be. The game seems to be accelerating is my feeling. The Chinese yuan made a move a few hours ago that looks to my eye as an out of normal move for that currency, which is normally tightly controlled by the Chinese govt.

And of course the Swiss move the week before last.

And the issue of Dollar strength and it's effects on US exports and spending.

The longer term positive must be low energy prices. IF they stay low. That will depend on how fast the rig count falls in this country and how many drillers go broke before the price rebounds. If money stays cheap the drillers will probably have a chance to prolong the pain. (for themselves) And the consumers and delivery drivers will be happy, but the rebound in energy price would be sharper, presuming that the demand for petroleum products increases.

I continue to think that this may be a sideways to down year. The volatility, so far indicates this. One could just step aside for awhile. Are we counting on that last 5%?

Quite a change from my last post. Was it Mr. Buffet that described Mr. Market as a manic-depressive personality? I feel that way trying to anticipate the herd.


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