Thursday, March 17, 2016


The Federal Reserve decision yesterday and comments by the chairman seemed like a pivot in expectations as Chair Yellen made clear that the board had no intention of raising interest rates until inflation was clearly in the 2% range.

The market seems to take it as a fact that there is an unstated move to weaken the US Dollar on the part of the Federal Reserve.

Gold is holding up pretty well, as well, without near the volatility one would expect at multi-week highs in price.

On a related note, the Baltic Dry Index has been moving up for the last month after a long steady decline. Again time will tell if this is a bottom, but if the dollar is topping I would expect finicky ship owners to demand more dollars per ship/day as compensation for the risk of a weakened currency, not to mention the costs of bunker fuel rising.

On this weekly chart the dollar looks to be making a long term top. Time will tell.


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