Sunday, March 4, 2012

When failed breakouts attack!

As I have said before breakouts tend to start failing as the sentiment changes from bullish to bearish in a market. Instead of buyers coming in on the upswing, sellers start looking for volume to sell into....
Here is CDE from last week.
I did not buy any of this. I have been wary for a couple weeks now. But as a chart pattern it is classic. A buy above 30 would soon yield a 10% loss. My own style would be to have dumped it the second day after the breakout when it reversed on high volume. It has pulled back to the up trend line so some may buy. But the fact that the move higher reversed means that the type of trade that I look for did not happen. At least not this time. If this stock turns higher from here, and goes to a new high I would be a buyer. Because something would have dramatically changed. But for now this stock looks like a messenger telling me the market is getting weak. Of course this is the result of silver and gold's about faces last week. So if the gold and silver market are nervous enough to change direction on a dime I have to believe the whole market may do the same......
CDE:
TLT is a conundrum:

If China suffers a slowdown and they need to raise cash it is alway possible for them to have to sell US Treasurys. But that is a ways off. In the short term if the stock indexes correct TLT will still be safe haven......IMHO  Blah, Blah, Blah......
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All comments are appreciated as it will give me a chance to adjust my content to any real people who may be out there. Thank you. gh