Friday, August 17, 2012

Emerging Markets?

It seems for some time now all I hear on CNBC are various commentators talking about the strength of the U.S. stocks vs. the weakness of the emerging markets. Emerging markets were all the rage a few years ago and then fell along with the credit implosion. They have remained relatively weak since then. Probably due to the specter of weak China/ weak U.S. demand.
One of the indicators that I use, (a contrary indicator) is when all of the commentators are leaning one way, no-one seems to be taking the other view, and the markets in question are generally out of favor. And then of course there is the issue of timing. A market can remain out of favor for a long time.

But in looking at some charts I've noticed a continual rise in the index of Emerging Market Bonds. Of course the U.S. bonds have done well as have most bonds in the world with the notable exceptions of the Euro area countries that are having solvency problems. The general "safe haven" of the U.S. is probably due to our status as the largest economy and the reserve currency of the world. So why would Emerging Market Bonds continue to rise?
Here are the charts of EEM (emerging market index) and EMB (emerging market bond index)....

Comments welcome.

No comments:

Post a Comment

All comments are appreciated as it will give me a chance to adjust my content to any real people who may be out there. Thank you. gh