Well, I've felt a lot like a contrary indicator lately. Buy at the highs, and sell at the lows. And at all times feeling I was right! But when that happens and it has happened before I get out of my positions and stop trading for awhile. This time about a week. With only an occasional glance at the markets. When I come back and look things over I am struck by the strength that I see in the housing stocks, (they have been strong for some time now, but I was not a believer) the steel stocks, and to some extent the mining/manufacturing stocks.
And when I look at things I get the feeling that things may be shaping up for another commodity bull market. With all of the bad news about the economies of the world why would anybody buy steel? Same with silver. And gold is holding up, so far.... And there is some exiting of the long bonds, which are sensitive to inflation.
Natural gas still strong. I talked about GASL awhile back. It may be in the process of a breakout to the upside. ]
STLD in a good rally. A long term chart of SCHN looks good. FCX starting to come alive.
But SLW is one of my longstanding "tells". And if it is still valid as such it is leading silver higher. Charts below.