Thursday, March 27, 2014

Not Much Volatility

I have been trading volatility the last few days. I must say that the volatility has not gone up as much as I expected. Whenever something does not do what I expected I take it as a warning at least.
Given where we are in this long bull market, and the sharpness of the recent declines, I expected the volatility to go up faster. Perhaps I am being impatient again. Or perhaps the fear is not as strong and there really is a "rotation" going on.

Emerging markets are strong. The last time there was talk of a taper in Fed buying of govt. debt the EM tanked. Not so much this time. The strength may be a result of commodities strength, but iron, steel, gold and silver are weak....???

I am suddenly not so bearish for the reasons outlined above.
Are you getting dizzy?

Later... @ 1113 pst

And, by the way, I think gold just bottomed for this move... don't bet the ranch, but the volume in GLD kind of fizzled out.

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