Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Is that a train I hear?

A few post back I related the anecdote told by Jesse Livermore about a train coming down the tracks. If you are standing on the tracks, you move off the tracks and let the train pass. And you don't even pat yourself on the back for being so prudent.
I think I hear a train.....
TLT represents the long U.S. Treasury Bond. It keeps going higher. It is recognized as a safe haven in the world. (I guess the U.S. still pays it's bills)
If the stock market was going to go higher from here, the long bond should be losing value, not going higher in price and lower in yield. The yield today closed at 2.17%. That yield represents the fear of an economic slowdown. If the economy was going to keep expanding, the stock market would be the place to be.
As I've said before, I look to the bond market to give an indication of the direction of the stock market. Inflation, in it's early stages, makes the stock market go up. Last year there was the expectation of inflation. Except for the last unemployment report, which was only a little better than expected, the economic indicators have been weak for months. And now there is the prospect of banks in Europe being insolvent due to the sovereign debt they hold on their books from Greece, Italy, Portugal and who knows who else.
I exited all of my long stock positions. I have a small short position on, with the intention to stand aside for awhile and let the direction of the market become clearer.
I even closed out a fairly large position I had in Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ). Of course it will go up now just to spite me! But in looking at this chart, I see the possibility of a move either way, and I don't like "hoping" for a move when I have a large position. Check out this triangle pattern. The last move was down, so the odds are for a continuation....
I was short gold. Who knows why! I got out on that little dip a couple days ago with a 7% loss. I have to guard against the urge to pick tops and bottoms in markets when things get volatile.
Gold also is the safe haven, and shows no signs of letting up on its strong run up.

Here is something to pass the time:

Always limit risk. gh

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All comments are appreciated as it will give me a chance to adjust my content to any real people who may be out there. Thank you. gh