Tuesday, August 2, 2011

What the hell?

So I suppose I should slink back in here and give another view of where I think the markets may go now.
Things are looking ugly in the equity markets. In the same way that I use SLW as a tell for silver, I use TLT as a tell for the stock markets. When TLT goes up, it indicates a flight to quality/risk aversion. It usually moves up hours or days before the stock markets go down. And the price is relative, meaning that if the stock market appears strong, but TLT holds up it does not bode well for SPY...
Anyway, the recent Gold GLD trade was a classic example of buying a new high. It is often the safest spot to risk new money. The buy point was at 152.
And the bottom picking I was trying in TBT was a classic example of the dangers of bottom picking. All you usually get is smelly fingers!
I actually sensed danger and got out with a small gain, essentially a breakeven trade.
And TLT, this rally is scary in it's implications for the world stock markets.

The S & P.
Here is the antidote to a declining S & P:


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