Wednesday, April 10, 2013

CNBC as a contrary indicator

I always have CNBC on when I'm sitting in front of the trading screen. Over the years I have noticed that, like most news services, they are not timely. By the time they are reporting a move the move is over or nearly over. And if they say it is time to buy it is probably time to sell.

Today the talk is of the gold market. Goldman Sachs came out with a "Sell" on gold. (Why would GS tell us to sell gold short? A: because they have their short positions in place.) As CNBC is talking about gold, GLD sells off. In the past when I see a market move as it is being talked about I know the CNBC watchers are making their move.  And those who trade on the news are usually wrong.

On the weekly chart gold is sitting on a floor. If the floor breaks the price could fall. BUT, how far. With Goldman short?I wonder when they will cover.

CNBC is a contrary indicator. Time will tell if that indicator has worth this time....


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