Friday, April 12, 2013

How is the Dr. doing?

Much has been said about the predictiveness of copper prices for the outlook on the global economy and industrial activity. There is no doubt that the price of copper is dependent on supply and demand forces in the long term even as there has been increased speculation in copper as in everything else over the last several years. (At least, maybe decades..)

I notice a similarity in the trend of the price of gold as in the price of copper. Just as "everybody" can't believe the U.S. stock story, and that is used as a contrary rationale for the continued ascent of the indexes (the "wall of worry" etc.), why isn't the outlook for copper on the upswing as well? Could it be that the general pessimism regarding the stock market is deeper that just the speculative exuberance that characterized the markets of the early and mid 2000's? Are the rank and file of the world concerned over more mundane things like food, shelter and saving for the future?

And "everybody" thinks we are in for an inflationary trend as well. Myself included. But it doesn't seem to be happening, except in the paper asset markets. Will everybody be wrong? Everybody is usually wrong before they are right!

I just notice a weakness in the copper market that may be more than just speculative excess unwinding.

macro thinking,

1 comment:

  1. As an aside to the above it seems that the time for the hedge funds to start pushing this market around is just about here. Again.


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