Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Trading Patterns as Tea Leaves

An interesting chart pattern in FXE, the fund that trades the Euro currency.

A rising wedge pattern on declining volume is often the harbinger of a sharp fall in the security that is being traded.

A couple of reasons for the Euro to fall sharply come to mind. One would be if the ECB was to lower interest rates and join the global currency war that is ongoing. The countries of the world have been in a race to devalue their home currencies for decades. If the US didn't have this pesky world reserve currency we would have had hyperinflation years ago.

I don't know what the reaction in the Euro would be if a shooting war breaks out in Ukraine. But if it led to NATO involvement I can't see the Euro gaining. If this FXE ETF actually reflects the volume in the underlying currency, then I expect this currency to fall. Sometime.


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